Beijing Breakdown

Opinion

Sinner vs. Alcaraz in Beijing

One of the best fights in tennis, pizza vs. paella, happened again last week. Alcaraz and Sinner went toe-to-toe in yet another jaw dropping final in Beijing, with the Spaniard squeaking out the victory in a third set tiebreak. The two are the best show in the biz because they bring out a level of tennis that we’ve never seen before. I like the way Hugh Clark puts it: 

The pair have had incredible seasons, winning two grand slams a piece. Yet Carlos has gotten the best of the Italian all three times they’ve played this year. And while matches at their level are often decided by only a handful of points, I wanted to see if data could help explain why their recent matches have gone one way.

After combing through the stats, I found that Carlos has won a higher percentage of points on his 1st serve in all three meetings. While there are many ways one could interpret this, here’s my take:

Alcaraz is a more effective server than Sinner. By more effective, I mean three things: he has more power, more spin, and is better at the +1 ball. All of which make it slightly easier for him to hold serve and then apply maximum pressure on return games.

In the Beijing final, Carlos’ average 1st serve speed was 122 MPH, to Jannik’s 119. The added MPH awarded him free points, short returns, and ultimately 7% more points won on 1st serves compared to Sinner. More power, more points.

It also seems like Carlos’ slice and kick serves have more action (read: spin) than Sinner’s do. These serves pull Jannik far into the doubles alleys on returns, and give Carlos a ton of open court to work with. While Jannik has both serves too, they don’t seem to pull Carlos out of position in quite the same way. Here’s a good example from the final.

And in terms of the +1 ball, Carlos is the king. He is downright disrespectful towards well-hit returns to his forehand, and sends them back with even more pace. Add the feathery drop shot to the big serve and monster first forehand, and it must feel damn near impossible to know what to do when returning against Carlos. His bag is deep, and the stats show it. Carlos won 73% of rallies between 0-4 shots when serving, compared to Jannik’s 65% last week.

The combination of power, spin and +1 perfection makes holding serve easier for Carlos, and frees him up to go for his shots on return games. Last week he earned himself 15 break points. And while he only converted 3, the volume of opportunities he had put immense pressure on Sinner. Jannik, on the other hand, only earned himself 6 break points in the same number of return games played.

Let’s remember, the margins in these matches are tiny, and there are so many other factors to consider in this rivalry. Sinner had a real chance to win in straight sets last week, which would have shut me up about Carlos’ serve. That said, it’s still curious that paella has beaten pizza 3 consecutive times, so it’s worth looking into. Let’s hope this is just the beginning of a long, delicious rivalry. 🍕

Trivia

🚨 Someone cranked up the trivia setting to hard mode last week. If you find that person, please report them immediately.

Tennis has been growing steadily in the East. Of the Asian players below, who has the most Grand Slam titles?

A. Naomi Osaka

B. Leander Paes

C. Peng Shuai

D. Sania Mirza

Find out at the bottom!

Meet the Player

Qinwen Zheng

From: Shiyan, Hubei Province, China

Best Slam Result: Final (AO 2024)

Career High Ranking: 7

Fun Fact: As of this summer, is an Olympic Gold medalist 🥇

Game Analysis: Qinwen boasts huge groundstrokes, is comfortable at net, and throws in the occasional slice/drop shot to keep opponents guessing. Pair these skills with her speed and athleticism, and it’s no wonder how she’s cracked the top 10 at just 21 years old. That said, she has large take-backs on both wings, which make it difficult for her to time the ball against big-hitters like Sabalenka, who crushed her at the Aussie and US Open this year.

Career Prediction: With so much tennis ahead of her, Qinwen has the game to win multiple slams and be a top 5 player. If she can figure out a way to shorten up her strokes on hard court, it’s only a matter of time before she has her name etched in a slam trophy.

Shot of the Week

Octopus Magic 🪄

With both tours in China right now, we’re throwin’ it back to this sublime volley from Medvedev (didn’t know that phrase existed) in Shanghai in 2018. Enjoy

Around the Net

News From Around the Tour

🏆 Coco Gauff won her second WTA title of the year in Beijing last week, building much-needed confidence after what’s been a trying year. With the win, she’s become the first woman in the Open Era to win her first 7 hard-court finals. Talk about being good when it counts.

📝 Rule change. NCAA Division I singles champions will no longer get a main draw wild card into the US Open. Instead, the USTA will host a 4 person invite-only playoff in May/June for American collegiate players. The NCAA champion and/or finalist will receive an invite, with the winner of the playoff earning the wild card.

🍀 Fourth time’s the charm. 19 year old Stanford sophomore Nishesh Basavareddy claimed his maiden Challenger title last weekend in Tiburon, CA. He had lost all three previous Challenger finals this year, but defeated Texas Longhorn Eliot Spizzirri to get over the hump.

Answer

B. Leander Paes

This one isn’t even a contest. Leander Paes (left) has 18 grand slam titles, 8 in Men’s Doubles and 10 in Mixed. Check out the highlights from this classic match against the Bryan Brothers in the 2011 Aussie Open final. Doubles at it’s finest 🤌🏼