Breaking Down the Last Sincaraz Showdown of 2025

Match Analysis

The Last Sincaraz Showdown of 2025

On Sunday, Sincaraz played for the 16th time. The pair dominated this year, so it felt inevitable that they’d make the finals in Turin and showdown one last time.

The Italian stallion got the dub 7-6(4), 7-5, winning back-to-back ATP Finals titles, and stacking a smooth $5 milli to the bank account.

Let’s raise our tennis IQ a couple points, and dive into each player’s strategy:

Alcaraz: Middle Solves the Riddle

Carlitos had a very clear game plan.

1. Hit up the middle

Flat, fast, and deep through the middle third of the court. But isn’t the point of tennis to make your opponent run? Typically yes, and Carlos is excellent at that. But hitting up the middle made it easier to do this:

2. Keep it low

When you hit through the middle, you’re naturally hitting over the lower part of the net. That helps keep the ball down — which was ultimately what the Spaniard was after. He wanted to limit the number of shots Sinner could take in his strike zone.

3. Bet on a misfire

But still, how is that a winning strategy? I understand your concern ma'am. Sinner isn’t going to miss balls hit right to him. But every once in a while, he can mis-hit one, or leave one a little short — and that sliver of a window is all Carlos needs to take the offensive and attack. That was his game plan.

That said, there’s a tradeoff to this strategy that’s worth knowing.

It’s insanely tough on the legs, because he let Sinner run him side to side for two hours. He basically signed up for back-to-back Orange Theory classes.

But Alcaraz and his team believed this gave him the best chance to win rallies on this surface.

Both Players: Treat the Second Serve Like a Short Ball

This was the shared thesis of the match. And more broadly, it’s the shared strategy of every indoor match between the two.

Fast indoor courts reward the server. So as a returner, you basically have one job:

When you get a look at a second serve, swing like you’re Barry Bonds.

The risk–reward makes sense: if you win enough of these points, you put a ton of pressure on your opponent to make their first serve. That pressure might buy you a double fault, or make your opponent take some pace off their first serve, and give you a better chance at breaking at a crucial moment.

Sinner’s Strategy: Pace + Just Enough Variety

It’s funny, after the match Sinner said it was pretty clear what his and Carlos’ strategies were. I could figure out the Spaniard’s (at least some of it), but Sinner’s was less clear to me.

It just felt like: “See ball, hit ball. Extremely hard.”

But I did notice something new: a bit more variety. For once, his pasta marinara had some basil on it. And a sprinkle of pecorino romano.

Sinner hit a couple of drop shots, a swing volley, and took a few trips up to net on his own accord. It’s part of his quest to be less predictable, which seemed like his number one takeaway after getting cooked in the US Open final.

That’s really the whole strategy. Hit big, take time away, add a sprinkle of variety so Carlos can’t get too comfortable.

Tennis is easy, no?

Why I Love this Match Up

The most interesting thing about this match up is that it makes each player think way more than any other match-up in the game right now (maybe minus playing Djokovic).

In basically all other matches, the two can rely on their everyday game to get the job done. Their weapons are just better. Their athleticism is just better.

But when they play each other, none of that is enough.

Their matches are always an insane level, and often come down to just a handful of points. They are always making mid-match adjustments. Both need to think one step ahead, and attack more bravely than they do against anyone else.

That’s why this rivalry hits different: it’s not just great tennis — it’s great problem-solving.

Photo of the Week

Trivia

This retired ATP pro is famous for finishing his college career a perfect 72-0. He won back-to-back NCAA singles titles, four consecutive NCAA team titles, and reached as high as No. 21 in the world. Who is this goated college player?

A. Mackenzie McDonald (UCLA)

B. John Isner (Georgia)

C. Steve Johnson (USC)

D. Tennys Sandgren (Tennessee)

Find out at the bottom!

Memes

Stat of the Week

Huge Finals Guy

Sinner is only the 3rd player in the Open era to reach the final at all four Grand Slams and the ATP Finals in the same season, and he's the youngest ever to do so.

The other two are Federer (2006, 2007) and Djokovic (2015, 2023).

Around the Net

Some of the best tennis content I found on the internet this week…

🤤 I love this view of FAA’s footwork. So fast, yet so smooth.

💥 Easily the best doubles point of this year’s ATP finals. To quote Robbie Koenig, “And he’s got those reflexes…Like a mongoose on amphetamines!”

📈 Check out Andy Roddick’s take on Learner Tien’s rapid rise. The American went from 122 to Top 30 this year.

Answer

C. Steve Johnson

Stevie J’s got a lot of hardware at home. Along with his collegiate accolades, he picked up four ATP singles titles, a couple of dubs titles, and a bronze medal at the Rio Olympics.

Bonus Stat

Carlos and Jannik have now played 3,302 points over the course of their rivalry.

Alcaraz has won 1,651.

Sinner has won 1,651.

Math.