Chilly Down Under -- Mid 2000s Trivia -- What it's really like against the Top 10

Australian Open

Chilly Down Under

Crikey. The 10-day forecast in Melbourne is chilly. Okay not chilly, but not-that-hot. Minus a few spike days.

Which is not what most of us imagine when we think Australian Open. We picture heat stroke. Ball kids (unfortunately) fainting. And ice towel changeovers like this:

But most days? Highs around 78 and sunny. That’s the peak temperature in the middle of the day. So if you’re first on at 11 a.m., you might be playing in 65 degrees and cloudy.

(If you’re on-site and disagree, please yell at me in my inbox.)

Why does this matter?

Because the idea of writing another predictions piece made me ugly yawn. So let’s look at how humanity’s favorite water-cooler topic (besides AI) could have a huge impact on who makes a deep run down under, and who might be packing their bags early.

Let’s start with what cooler temps change.

1) Big servers lose a little bite

Heat helps serves pop. The ball flies. They skid off the lines. Everything feels faster.

But cooler air takes a bit of sting off.

This doesn’t mean the serve bots are screwed. 132 MPH is still 132 MPH. But it means that they might not get as many free points as they’re used to. Returners may have a split second longer to set up for a return. Which means the serve bot might have to play longer rallies, where their chances of winning are lower.

So if I were Reilly Opelka, I’d be sliding Craig Tiley (the tournament director) a $5 and some Vegemite to get a favorable 2PM match time.

2) Fitness advantages flatten (slightly)

Extreme heat usually rewards fitter players: those who did sprints till they threw up in the off-season, and stayed away from “sampling” every dessert at Christmas dinner.

But cooler weather levels things out. Players who normally sweat buckets can conserve more energy. Over four or five matches, that compounds. And this is where someone like Djokovic quietly benefits. Cooler conditions help him manage his ancient body, stay efficient, and get to the later rounds with enough in the tank.

Advantage: Wawrinka, Djokovic, and Mr. Bring 20 Shirts to Every Match Frances Tiafoe

3) Rhythm players suffer

Cooler mornings and breezy nights also make it harder to find clean rhythm. Muscles aren’t as warm. Timing feels a hair off. The ball doesn’t jump.

That’s bad news if your game depends on repeatable, metronomic ball-striking.

But it’s good news if you:

• Defend well

• Absorb pace

• Change height, spin, and tempo

• Are good at winning ugly

So anyone who has to play people like Moutet, Medvedev, or Coco on slightly cooler night is in my prayers.

Put it together

Imagine Medvedev catching Alcaraz on a brisk evening. Carlos still brings the fireworks, but maybe the ball gets through the court a tiiiiiiiny bit less. Maybe a few more rallies drift toward neutral. Maybe that’s all Meddy needs.

Or Coco catching Sabalenka on a gross day. Slightly windy. Suddenly it’s not about power — it’s about who can manage the mental highs and lows of a match without much rhythm off the ground. That’s how she [Coco'] won her second slam, and I bet she’d do it again.

The real point

When we watch matches from our perfectly climate-controlled 68-degree homes, it’s easy to completely forget the conditions entirely.

But the weather is always there. Like the chair umpire. Like the crowd. And can have a huge impact on the outcome of any match.

Trivia

This player had a career high ranking of No. 3 in the world. He played with a Prince racket, made it to the French Open final, and was known to be one of the few players on tour that enjoyed Marlboro Reds. Who is this player?

A. David Ferrer

B. Gilles Simon

C. Fernando Verdasco

D. Jurgen Melzer

Find out at the bottom!

Stat of the Week

Now that we’re back to Best of 5 set matches on the ATP tour, I wanted to know — who has the all time highest win percentage of 5 set matches? With a minimum of 10 played, here’s how it shakes out:

🏆️ At the #1 spot, Carlos Alcaraz. He’s 13-1 so far in his career, for a 93% win percentage.

Tied for second are Bjorn Borg (27-6) and Johan Kriek (18-4), for an 82% win percentage.

And third on the list is (of course) Novak Djokovic, who is incredibly 40-11 (78%). Let’s hope there’s at least 1 more in him.

Around the Net

Some of the best tennis content I found on the internet this week…

😆 In case you missed it, former Gonzaga Bulldog Jordan Smith won the 1 Point Slam, and walked away with a million dollars (~$668,000 USD). Relive his cinderella run, and the best points from the tournament.

🔁 Why Steve Johnson switched to Yonex, and why players should never switch rackets for the money.

🤔 What it’s really like playing against the Top 10, and some of the strategies that have and have not worked for Holger Rune

Answer

A. David Ferrer