Inside Sabalenka's Strategy

Miami Open

Inside Sabalenka’s Strategy

On Saturday, Aryna Sabalenka captured her first Miami Open title, beating Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2 in a rematch of the 2024 US Open final (which Sabalenka also won).

The Belarusian giant showcased why she’s the best—showcasing her problem-solving skills with her deep toolkit to claim her eighth WTA 1000 trophy. Let’s break down how she dismantled Pegula’s game.

Playing High & Low

Peggy started strong, ripping return winners and dictating points with big groundstrokes. She even went up a break in the first (read: had hope). But Sabalenka quickly adjusted, disrupting the World No 4’s rhythm with strategic shot selection (read: hope gone)

Sabalenka began hitting high, looping forehands that pushed Pegula back, and forced her to hit way above her strike zone. From this position, Pegula couldn’t generate much pace, allowing Sabalenka to take control of the rally.

In the same rally, just two shots later, Sabalenka flipped the script—using a low forehand slice that drew an error from Pegula. The combination of height variations, spins, and speeds made it hard for Jess to time her big groundstrokes—and nearly impossible to settle into a groove.

💡 This highlights a broader principle: at its core, tennis strategy is about figuring out what shots make your opponent uncomfortable and constructing shot sequences to exploit that.

Attacking the Second Serve

Pegula’s second serve averaged around 73 MPH. While that’s the top speed of my Toyota Prius, in tennis terms, that’s a sitting duck. Sabalenka took full advantage, stepping in and crushing second-serve returns to immediately start points on offense.

In the first set alone, I counted seven points where Sabalenka’s monstrous return either forced an immediate Pegula error or set up an easy put-away.

To Peggy’s credit, she maintained a high first-serve percentage (73%), limiting Sabalenka’s chances to attack second serves. But even Pegula’s first serve—averaging 106 MPH—was a shitting duck, and Sabalenka teed off on those too.

The Bigger Picture

Sabalenka isn’t just a power player—in the last few years, she’s has added variety to her game, and with that, the ability to break down players even on their best days.

At this pace, the Belarusian will hold the No. 1 spot for dozens of weeks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she got up to double digit slams.

Trivia

On the ATP, players born in the 1980s have won a staggering 80 grand slams. How many slams have players born in the 90s won?

A. 5

B. 13

C. 0

D. 2

Find out at the bottom!

Special shoutout to reader and friend Sharif Kombo for providing this week’s trivia question!

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Meet the Player

Andrey Rublev

From: Russia 🇷🇺

Career High Ranking: 5

Fun Fact: Middle name is Andreyevich. So fire

Game Analysis: Tennis balls all over the world quake in their cans knowing that Andrey Rublev is among us. The fiery ginger snap is one of the best in the world at hugging the baseline, taking the ball early, and hitting the shit out it. Think Andre Agassi, but extremely angry. That said, he’s a one-speed bike — lacking foot speed, variety, and defensive skills.

Career Prediction: Top 10 for the last few years, 2 masters 1000 titles, and many 500 titles, Rublev has maximized his strengths, and has already had an incredible career. But the Russian is 0-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, and I think it’ll stay that way. Over 5 sets, his high-risk game breaks down, and he doesn’t have enough tools to beat the likes of Alcaraz, Sinner, and Medvedev.

Opinion

Miami Open > Indian Wells

After my trip to Miami last week, a few readers asked which tournament I prefer. Maybe it’s just recency bias, but I am firmly team Miami. Here’s why:

🌇 The City

In between days at the Open, I loved going to the beach, shakin’ it at some vibey bars, and getting the best Cuban sandwich of my life. There’s just so much more to do in Miami vs. in get-off-my-putting-green Palm Springs.

🕺🏽 The Atmosphere

Watching tennis with a Latin American crowd is a party. Whether it was for superstar Joao Fonseca, or an unknown Argentinian player, the Latin crowd always cheered and chanted hard for their countrymen and women—making matches feel more like soccer games. You just don’t get that in posh Palm Springs.

🎾 The Tennis

Because Indian Wells is in the high desert, the ball bounces up irregularly high, and the winds can be severe. While Indian Wells is stunning, I don’t think it brings out the best tennis in the players. The courts in Miami have a truer bounce, making for longer rallies and better tennis overall.

Answer

D. 2

Because Novak, Roger and Rafa were all trophy-hogs for the past two decades, an entire generation of players were basically left out of winning slams. The two players born in the 90s that have won slams are Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev.