The Importance of Matchups

Strategy Deep Dive

The Importance of Matchups

Get this: World No. 26 Jelena Ostapenko is 5-0 against 5-time Grand Slam champ Iga Swiatek. That makes Penko the only active player with a winning record against Iga (with at least two matches played). After crushing the Pole 6-3, 6-1 last week in Doha, she said:

Well damn 😳

It’s rare to have a winning record against Swiatek, so being 5-0 is just insane. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and see why it’s so bad for the former No. 1.

Raw Power 💪🏽

Penko hits monstrous, flat groundstrokes through the center of the court (read: Swiatek’s nightmare). The Pole’s full western forehand grip makes it hard for her to handle Penko’s ball speed — this draws errors out of Iga, and pushes her far behind the baseline. The end result? Tons of time and space for Penko to rip groundstrokes, and tons of running for Iga.

Disguise 🥸

Penko has big, looping backswings on both groundstrokes, which create two problems for Iga (and all of her opponents):

1. They disguise her shot, making it difficult to read where it’s going

2. They disrupt her opponents’ timing, making it harder to know when to split step

Last week, Swiatek frequently found herself off balance. She was often late to the ball, and didn’t have time to properly set up her swing. At times, she even resorted to purely guessing where Penko was going.

The clearest example came at 0-1, Deuce in the second set. Swiatek hit a second serve and guessed that the return would go down-the-line. But Penko went the other way, hitting a clean winner that bounced just a couple feet from the center of the court. Swiatek was nowhere close.

The Mental Block 🥴

With a 4-0 record heading into last week’s match, I’m willing to bet Penko lives in a $10M mansion rent free in Iga’s head.

“Will I ever beat her?”

“If I don’t win this time, what will people think?”

“Why the [insert Polish swear word] can’t I figure her out?”

Swiatek wasn’t just battling Ostapenko—she was likely battling her own doubts, adding an extra layer of pressure to an already difficult task. The mental burden finally boiled over in the second set, when Swiatek slammed her racket into the ground during a changeover.

Zooming out, Penko vs. Swiatek highlights just how much matchups influence the outcome of a match. While Iga is ranked higher, has won more titles, and may seem like the clear favorite on paper, tennis isn’t played on paper—it’s played in real time, where styles, patterns, and psychological edges matter just as much as rankings.

Trivia

Which of the following lefties has the most tour titles? A tour title includes any pro tournament, not just grand slams.

A. Rafael Nadal

B. Martina Navratilova

C. Jimmy Connors

D. John McEnroe

Find out at the bottom!

Meet the Player

Jessica Pegula

From: USA 🇺🇸

Best Slam Result: F (US Open 2024)

Career High Ranking: 3

Fun Fact: Her parents are principal owners of the Buffalo Bills

Game Analysis: A mini earthquake registers every time Jess hits a forehand. Her opponents have a hard time catching up with her ball speed, giving her tons of short balls to further attack. She compliments this with good feel (read: a slice), and a strong net game.

Career Prediction: At 30 years old, Jess is playing some of the best tennis of her career. She made the finals of the US Open six months ago, and has more game in her. She’ll make deep runs in slams (especially on fast courts), and if she catches lightning in a bottle, she could definitely win one.

In Case You Missed It

Headlines from Around the Tours

✌🏼 Sinner banned for 3 (convenient) months. On Saturday, the World No. 1 struck a plea deal in his doping case with WADA, resulting in a suspension from February 9 to May 4—an incredibly favorable window. He won’t miss a Grand Slam and will return just in time for Rome (ATP 1000), his home country’s biggest tournament. The timing has sparked controversy, with many questioning whether one of tennis’ biggest stars is receiving preferential treatment. This is the story in tennis right now, but others have covered it in more depth than I could. If you want the details, I highly recommend this article and/or this podcast episode!

📢 PSA: Looking for a partner to play Mixed Doubles with me at the US Open this year. Must be at least a 17.2 UTR. Why so high? Because someone’s gotta carry me top 10 players like Ben Shelton and Madison Keys could be on the other side of the net. The real news here is that the US Open just announced a huge remodel of its Mixed Doubles event. The changes (which include $1M in prize money) aim to attract big name singles players to light up Arthur Ashe stadium and revive Mixed Doubles as a commercial product. I argued in a recent edition that the only way to keep dubs alive is to incentivize household name singles players — so I think this is a fantastic move by the US Open.

🍻 A toast to the short king. 5’ 7” Diego Schwartzman played his last professional match in front of an adoring hometown Bueno Aires crowd. Nicknamed “El Peque” (translates to “Shorty”), Schwartzman proved short-ist haters dead wrong, winning 4 tour titles, making it to the semi-finals of the French Open, and climbing to No. 8 in the world. The 32 year old leaves the sport in high spirits, saying “I achieved much more than I ever dreamed of.”

Memes

Answer

B. Martina Navratilova

The Czech legend won 167 singles titles (most all time), which includes another all-time record of 59 major trophies (across singles/dubs/mixed). Her resume also boasts the single best pro season ever (86-1 in 1983), and a 74 match win streak 🤯

So much steez in this photo 😮‍💨