The Spreadsheet vs. Intuition in Tennis

Opinion

The Spreadsheet vs. Intuition in Tennis

Yesterday I listened to an amazing 90 minute interview with Sir Your Highness Andy Murray. In one part, he talked about how data and analytics have become a big part of how players create game plans.

For example, during his brief stint as Novak’s coach this year (remember that?), he spent hours with Djokovic’s long-time excel god data analyst to better understand Alcaraz’s game: where he most often served at 30-30, when he lost the highest percentage of points and why, and what pick-up lines work best for him in Ibiza.

Whatever they found, it worked — grandpa beat the 21 year old in the quarters of Australia, having both devised and executed a game plan flawlessly.

This anecdote got me thinking: now that match data is both prolific and accessible to all of the top players, how do different folks use it?

On one hand of the spectrum, there’s Andre Agassi (Note: I 100% know he played before ChatGPTennis was born, but he was known to be extremely analytical).

In his book Open, Agassi described how he wanted encyclopedic scouting reports on his opponents. He would ask Brad Gilbert for every possible detail — what direction they returned serve best, what type of hair gel they used, which wing got tight under pressure, how they handled low balls vs. high balls, what they did at deuce, and so on.

He basically wanted a user manual on each player, and would have lengthy discussions with BG about it before every match.

For most people, this is probably way too much information to keep track of while trying to win a tennis match. But for Agassi, it helped him feel like he had done everything possible to prepare. The data made him feel ready.

On the complete other side of the spectrum: Roger Federer

In an interview with Trevor Noah he said, “My coaches and I would create a plan. But I feel like in my best years, I just focused more on my own game. And for the rest, I’d just wing it, I’d figure it out.”

He continued saying, “Towards the end of my career these analytics came out, and I would hear, ‘Oh this player would hit 73% of their first serves to the backhand on break point.’ But sometimes I preferred not to know, and to just go with the feeling of how the last game went, where he was serving, whether he was making or missing his serves, and just go with my intuition.”

That is so on-brand for Federer. But nonetheless, it’s fascinating: two of the greatest players ever, preparing in completely opposite ways.

So what’s the point?

1. Coaches really need to know their player

Some people want Agassi-level detail. Others want Federer-level freedom.

If you gave Andre the “just wing it” approach, he’d feel naked.

If you gave Roger a 32 slide power point deck, he’d probably start playing Doodle Jump on his phone.

This matters more than ever. A player like Alcaraz — who thrives on instinct, tempo, and crowd energy — might prefer one simple cue before a big moment over “amigo, he serves 65% to the forehand on deuce.”

The right amount of information is different for everyone.

2. Data is just a tool — not the answer.

Numbers can illuminate tendencies, but tennis will always be a sport of feel, momentum, and adjusting in real time. Data can point you in a direction; it can’t play the point for you.

The magic — the thing that separates good from great — is knowing when to trust the spreadsheet and when to close excel and trust yourself.

Trivia

Guess the silhouette! Which player is this?

A. Casper Ruud

B. Andy Murray

C. Lleyton Hewitt

D. Tommy Paul

Find out at the bottom!

Meet the Player

Elena Rybakina

From: Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 

Best Slam Result: W (Wimbledon ‘22)

Career High Ranking: 3

Fun Fact: Originally focused on ice skating and gymnastics as a kid. Apparently switched to tennis after being told she was too tall to go pro in those sports

Game Analysis: The 2022 Wimbledon champ hands down has the best serve on the WTA tour. She backs it up with huge groundstrokes, and an incredibly calm, yet terrifying on-court demeanor.

Career Prediction: At just 26, Rybakina has another slam in her future, if not multiple. She’s just got too much game and time left in her career — it’s only a matter of time.

Around the Net

Some of the best tennis content I found on the internet this week…

📺️ Here’s that OG Gillette commercial (highly recommend)

🏃 The hilarious story of Andy Murray’s first day on the job as Novak’s coach

😎 The best shots and rallies from the ATP tour 2025 season

Answer

B. Andy Murray

It’s Murray hitting his trademark open stance backhand.